The Core Report #722 Why Indian Markets Are Recovering Now
Nov 10, 2025
Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative and a trade policy expert, delves into India's market recovery and the factors driving it. He discusses Goldman Sachs' recent upgrade of India and outlines the impact of Quality Control Orders (QCOs) on small businesses, highlighting how these regulations favor larger firms. Ajay emphasizes the need to ease burdens on importers while addressing the resistance from established industries. Additionally, he touches on the growing weight-loss drug market and the tariff challenges faced by Indian restaurants in New York.
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Earnings Momentum Is Powering Markets
- Corporate earnings momentum is driving global and Indian market recovery right now.
- Goldman cites strengthening earnings and policy tailwinds in upgrading India to overweight.
Goldman Turns Bullish On India
- Goldman Sachs reversed its October 2024 downgrade and expects a 14% Nifty rise by end-2026.
- The firm attributes this to improving earnings momentum and supportive policy.
Employment And Female Participation Rise
- India's unemployment fell to 5.2% in July–September with rising rural and female participation.
- PLFS reports employment at about 562 million and a small rise in labour force participation.