Steve Ellis, Marty Dropkin, Anna Stupnytska, Jenn-Hui Tan, Neil Cable, and Michael Curtis discuss Fidelity's investment outlook for 2024, exploring scenarios of tight monetary policy, soft landing, real estate shifts, sustainability, and the impact of high inflation rates. They also analyze the potential scenarios for China's economy and the importance of nature loss alongside climate change.
Short-dated credit and hard assets like commodities are reliable investment choices in the controlled stabilization scenario in China.
Investing in inflation-linked bonds and cautioning against Japanese government bonds is recommended in light of potential policy changes in Japan.
Deep dives
Controlled stabilization and short-dated credit as a safe investment
In the 2024 outlook, the controlled stabilization scenario is seen as the base case for China, with measures aimed at stabilizing the property sector and boosting consumption. As a hot cake for all seasons, short-dated credit is a recommended option for investors. Additionally, hard assets such as commodities are suggested as a reliable investment choice to weather various scenarios.
India's potential as a hot cake investment
India is identified as a hot cake investment, offering secular growth and long-term potential. The focus on large-cap and well-performing small-cap stocks is highlighted. However, caution should be exercised as equity markets could be a hot potato in severe recession scenarios.
Inflation-linked bonds and Japanese government bonds
Inflation-linked bonds are presented as a hot cake investment due to their potential benefit in scenarios with sticky inflation and dropping real yields. On the other hand, Japanese government bonds are suggested as a hot potato, as the Bank of Japan is expected to start normalizing policy, potentially leading to asymmetric payoffs.
Richard Edgar is joined by Steve Ellis, Global CIO for Fixed Income, Marty Dropkin, Head of Equities for Asia Pacific, and Global Macro Economist, Anna Stupnytska, to discuss the four scenarios Fidelity's investment teams are watching for 2024.
With additional contributions from Fidelity's Chief Sustainability Officer Jenn-Hui Tan, Head of European Real Estate, Neil Cable, and Head of Private Credit Strategies, Michael Curtis.
Do you have a question you'd like to put to one of Fidelity's investment team? We're handing the microphone over to you again for our next episode. To take part please send your investment related question to editorial@fil.com by Friday 1st December, and we'll put the best ones to our experts. Look forward to hearing from you!