BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast The “Great Stall” Has Begun
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Nov 7, 2025 The housing market is entering a unique phase known as the 'Great Stall,' a period of stagnation that could last for years. Experts discuss the probabilities of market crashes or surges, weighing the impact of affordability and labor market health. Listeners learn strategies to capitalize on frozen home prices and prepare for future appreciation. The episode emphasizes a conservative investment approach, identifying upsides to maximize returns, and adopting a long-term perspective in an unpredictable environment.
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Affordability Is The Market’s Key Driver
- Affordability is the dominant variable driving both housing supply and demand right now.
- It determines who can buy and whether owners are willing to sell, shaping market direction.
Affordability Comes From Three Levers
- Affordability depends on three sub-variables: wages, home prices, and mortgage rates.
- Restoring affordability requires improvement in one or more of those simultaneously.
Labor Market Must Improve With Affordability
- Add the labor market (proxied by unemployment) as a critical variable that interacts with affordability.
- Even great affordability is worthless if unemployment prevents buyers from acting.