TBPN AGI in 2035, SoftBank Sells Nvidia, Buffett Goes Quiet | Diet TBPN
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Nov 12, 2025 In a lively discussion, hosts consider the implications of AGI's anticipated arrival in 2035. They ponder how this timeline should influence personal decisions and career paths. SoftBank’s profit surge linked to its Nvidia investments sparks interesting debate. A humorous look at Charlie Munger's controversial campus donation reveals design dilemmas. They explore the risks of public figures discussing psychedelics and the evolving landscape of digital addiction as a health crisis. The conversation is both provocative and entertaining!
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Consensus Around A Decade For AGI
- The AI community has coalesced around ~10-year AGI timelines, reducing diversity of opinion.
- That convergence may reflect psychological defaulting to a decade for uncertain tech milestones.
Agents Are Stretching Time Horizons
- Tracking agents' ability to handle longer tasks shows exponential growth in time horizons.
- Extrapolating that log-curve suggests agents could plan across careers by 2035.
A Decade As A Psychological Default
- A shared decade prediction can be a social equilibrium, not rigorous forecasting.
- People often default to 'a decade' when unsure about distant tech developments.