Bullish For Rest Of 2025, But Bearish For 2026 | Michael Howell

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Aug 3, 2025

Michael Howell, Founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, dives into his expertise on global liquidity and financial markets. He discusses the recent liquidity surge and warns of a looming refinancing crisis that could impact stability by 2026. Howell examines the interdependence of debt cycles and liquidity, highlighting concerns over collateral markets and bond volatility. He offers insights into the 10-year Treasury yield, emphasizing cautious optimism while stressing the importance of strategic asset allocation amidst potential market corrections.

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INSIGHT

Liquidity Strong Into 2025

Liquidity has sharply increased since late 2022 and looks strong going forward for now.
Key liquidity drivers include US Treasury actions, foreign central bank easing, and large injections by China.

INSIGHT

Debt-Liquidity Equilibrium Crucial

Liquidity and debt maintain an equilibrium critical for refinancing debt.
Rising debt levels relative to liquidity signal refinancing tensions and potential financial crises.

INSIGHT

Zero Interest Rates Fueled Debt Surge

Historically unprecedented zero or negative interest rates allowed massive borrowing and refinancing.
Large volumes of debt refinanced at low cost will return to markets after 2026, stressing liquidity.

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In his appearance at Thoughtful Money's Spring online conference back in March, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, warned of an oncoming liquidity air pocket.Which was why the market's subsequent plunge of nearly 20% in the following month wasn't a surprise to him.So, where does he see liquidity headed for the rest of 2025?To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself.

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