Joe Cirincione, a veteran national security analyst and nuclear policy expert, dives into the evolving global nuclear landscape. He discusses the alarming rise in arms modernization among nuclear powers like Russia and China. Cirincione highlights the urgent need for renewed arms control measures in this volatile era. He also explores the financial implications of U.S. nuclear programs, detailing the challenge of balancing military spending with domestic needs. The conversation sheds light on the complexities of missile defense systems and their real-world effectiveness.
The precarious state of the global nuclear arms control regime necessitates urgent renewed focus to prevent impending escalation and conflict.
The costly modernization of nuclear arsenals raises concerns over an arms race, highlighting the need for strategic arms reduction rather than reliance on missile defenses.
Deep dives
Nuclear Arms Control and Its Collapse
The current state of the nuclear arms control regime is alarmingly precarious, with many experts asserting we are nearing an extinction event for such treaties. Historically, these agreements have acted as critical guardrails to prevent escalation and keep arsenals in check. However, due to actions taken by leaders like Vladimir Putin and former President Trump, many of these frameworks have been dismantled, leading to increased tensions and skepticism towards future agreements. The ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals by all nuclear-capable nations further complicates this dire situation, highlighting the urgent need for a renewed focus on arms control initiatives.
Challenges of Nuclear Modernization
The modernization of nuclear arsenals is expanding and becoming increasingly costly, with estimates reaching up to $2 trillion for the United States to replace and upgrade its existing nuclear capabilities. This consensus across political lines has shifted priorities, with current plans focusing not only on modernization but also on expansion of nuclear stockpiles and development of new weapon systems. Critics of this trajectory argue that simply increasing arsenal size does not enhance security; rather, it perpetuates an arms race with adversaries like China and Russia. If the new Biden administration, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, does not address these complications, the risks of heightened conflict may significantly grow.
The Misconceptions of Missile Defense
The podcast delves into the complexities and inefficiencies of missile defense systems, particularly emphasizing the technological challenges associated with intercepting long-range ballistic missiles. Historical attempts to create reliable missile defenses have revealed an inherent difficulty due to the speed and stealth of incoming threats, leading many experts to declare them technically unfeasible. The discussion also extends to the rising push for extensive cruise missile defense, which raises concerns about the exorbitant costs and logistical challenges such an initiative would entail. Overall, this misconception about missile defense capabilities underscores the importance of focusing on strategic arms reduction rather than reliance on potentially ineffective defensive measures.
Veteran national security analyst and nuclear policy expert Joe Cirincione joins Jon to discuss the changing global nuclear landscape. Is there still arms control in this new and modernizing nuclear age? What do these large investments into nuclear weapons systems mean for our national security? And where are Russia and China in this conversation? Find out more here: