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Memo That Made Him An Overnight Success
- Howard Marks describes writing his “bubble.com” memo over months and finishing it during a Christmas break.
- He says it made him an overnight success after ten years with no responses.
Bubbles Follow Timeless Human Behavior
- Marks links recurring human behaviors to every bubble: chasing easy money and investing without understanding.
- He frames speculative plays as lottery tickets with low win probabilities but high prices.
Mean Reversion Shapes Long-Term Returns
- Stock market extremes breed opposite long-term outcomes due to regression to the mean.
- When stocks do poorly they often set the stage for future gains, and vice versa.