Lizzi Lee on China's Economy and the Trump Presidency

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Jan 16, 2025

Lizzi Lee, a Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, shares her sharp insights on China’s economic strategies amid the Trump presidency. She discusses the challenges of navigating US-China relations and the importance of self-reliance in tech. Lizzi delves into China's capital market reforms, the balance between immediate market confidence and long-term structural changes, and the post-COVID economic landscape. She also highlights youth issues, including the rise of 'TikTok refugees' and the insights from studies on unemployment and COVID-19 effects.

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INSIGHT

Long-Term View

Focus on structural transformations, not short-term noise, to understand US-China relations.
Adaptability is key, as Beijing believes, quoting ancient texts.

ANECDOTE

Huawei and ZTE Sanctions

The Huawei and ZTE sanctions were a turning point in US-China relations, not soybean purchases.
These sanctions triggered China's push for tech self-reliance, demonstrating the impact of concrete actions.

INSIGHT

China's Long Game

China views US-China competition as a long game, focusing on resilience and self-reliance.
They see rising tensions as unavoidable due to China's rapid economic growth relative to the US.

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This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Lizzi Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and by my lights one of the most astute, well-informed people writing on China in the English-speaking world today. She has fascinating perspectives on China's preparations for the Trump administration, on China's reluctance to roll out large-scale cash stimulus, and Xi Jinping's challenges. Don't miss this one! (I will update the show notes and publish the transcript early next week — thanks for your patience!)

3:39 – Lizzi’s argument from her op-ed, “Counting the Hawks in the Trump 2.0 Administration is Pointless”: the importance of which country will be able to get its act together

10:25 – U.S.-China competition as a long game, from China’s perspective

14:22 – How China views the current state of division in American politics

19:00 – The main risks and opportunities for China presented by Trump’s return, including opportunities in the geopolitical realm with the Europeans

28:09 – The state of China’s domestic economy

33:28 – Counterarguments to critiques of China’s cautious deployment of stimulus, and where Lizzi stands on the issue

43:46 – Lizzi’s thoughts on deflation in the Chinese economy

49:30 – The idea of accepting short-term pain for long-term gain in economic recovery

53:59 – Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s economy

58:46 – How Xi Jinping’s ideological language can be challenging for officials and markets

1:03:57 – How China’s political calendar has hindered execution of policy

1:06:42 – What Lizzi thinks the Chinese leadership should prioritize now

Paying it Forward: Lizzi recommends the work of Barclay Bram, especially his series on Chinese youth at the Asia Society here.

Recommendations:

Lizzi: Grazia Ting Deng’s book Chinese Espresso: Contested Race and Convivial Space in Contemporary Italy

Kaiser: More historical fiction by Robert Harris, including An Officer and a Spy and Munich.

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