The Big Story The tests ahead that will determine Pierre Poilievre’s future
Aug 21, 2025
Lewis Krashinsky, a postdoctoral fellow in political science at the University of Toronto, dives into the dynamics of Pierre Poilievre's recent by-election win and its implications for his future as Conservative Leader. The discussion highlights Poilievre's strategy for appealing to diverse voters and navigating leadership pressures. They analyze his rivalry with Prime Minister Mark Carney, the importance of adapting to shifting political landscapes, and strategies to address pressing issues like affordability and housing to strengthen his bid for Prime Minister.
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Safe Seat, Predictable Win
- Battle River–Crowfoot is one of Canada's safest Conservative ridings and Poilievre's win was expected.
- He slightly underperformed his predecessor but still secured a decisive victory around 80% of the vote.
By-Election Won, Bigger Questions Remain
- The by-election result doesn't resolve deeper questions about Poilievre's national electability.
- The party will test whether he can broaden appeal beyond the Conservative base to win government.
Tone Shift Toward The Centre
- Poilievre has softened tone since the federal election and may continue shifting toward the centre.
- A credible, lasting moderation will be necessary to appeal to swing voters and party skeptics.