Bankless Why This Cycle Feels Broken, Memecoins & Macro | Ben Cowen
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Feb 24, 2025 
Ben Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, shares his insights on the unique dynamics of the current crypto cycle. He explains how the Advanced Decline Index illustrates Bitcoin's resilience while altcoins battle volatility. Ben dives into the effects of quantitative tightening, the evolving ETH/BTC ratio, and the burgeoning influence of meme coins on market trends. His analysis provides a valuable perspective for anyone trying to navigate the complexities of today’s cryptocurrency landscape.
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Advanced Decline Index (ADI)
- The Advanced Decline Index (ADI) measures market breadth by tracking advancing and declining assets.
- A declining ADI, despite rising total market cap, indicates a narrow market driven by a few assets like Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC Ratio and Alt Season
- Altcoin season requires a bottoming of the ETH/BTC ratio, historically coinciding with the end of quantitative tightening (QT).
- The current low ETH/BTC ratio resembles 2019, suggesting a potential turnaround, but QT's continuation creates uncertainty.
ETH Going Home and Fed Pivot
- Consider ETH's "going home" as a potential trigger for the Fed's pivot and a subsequent ETH/BTC rise.
- If ETH struggles, prompting a Fed pivot, ETH/BTC could significantly increase, marking a shift in market dynamics.