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Bloomberg Talks
Ifo President Clemens Fuest Talks German Economy
Dec 18, 2023
Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute, discusses the recent worsening of German business expectations and expresses concern about the weak economy. The podcast explores factors affecting growth and the uncertainty surrounding economic policy.
05:24
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Quick takeaways
- Factors contributing to the weakness of the German economy include uncertainty surrounding the constitutional court ruling, high energy prices, and frictions in international trade, which may lead to a possible technical recession in Q4.
- The German economy's rebound is influenced by the US and China as crucial export markets, as well as structural issues within Germany such as problems in the car industry with e-mobility and autonomous driving, higher interest rates impacting the construction sector, but potential positive factors include wage growth, strong employment, and the possibility of declining interest rates in the second half of 2024.
Deep dives
Weak German economy and delayed recovery
The German economy is experiencing weakness and a delayed recovery. Factors contributing to this include the uncertainty surrounding the constitutional court ruling, high energy prices, and frictions in international trade. The forecast suggests a possible technical recession as Q3 was negative and Q4 may follow the same trend. The lack of a convincing economic policy strategy and structural issues in the domestic market further hinder the rebound. Additionally, the global economy's weak growth and the impact of higher interest rates on the construction sector add to the challenges.
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