Market MakeHer Podcast

13. Are We In A Recession? What and WHO Defines a Recession?

Sep 14, 2023
Explore the intriguing concept of the business cycle and how it mirrors a menstrual cycle, revealing the complexity of economic growth and contraction. Learn what soft, hard, and no landings mean for recession indicators. Discover why the NBER plays a crucial role in defining a recession and how it examines various economic factors beyond just GDP. Jess breaks down common misconceptions about recessions and discusses the impact of Fed policies on the economy. Tune in to understand how this knowledge can empower your investment decisions!
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INSIGHT

Recession Is A Complex, Multi‑Metric Call

  • A
ADVICE

Account For Fed Policy Lags

  • Do account for Fed lag effects because rate hikes take months to impact consumers and the economy.
  • Track delayed effects before assuming policy outcomes like a recession or soft landing.
INSIGHT

Four Phases And Turning Points

  • The business cycle has four phases of expansion and contraction, similar to menstrual phases as an analogy.
  • Turning points are peaks and troughs that mark shifts between growth and slowdown.
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