The USA Is Now A 'Pre-War' Economy | Peter Tchir

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Nov 4, 2025

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, shares his insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the diminished fears of trade wars and the effects of tariffs under the Biden administration. Tchir introduces the concept of 'Production for Security,' emphasizing its importance for supply-chain resilience. He predicts that while the economy may experience tailwinds, there are risks ahead for early 2026. Additionally, Tchir provides perspectives on shifting investments from AI high-flyers to smaller, more secure companies.

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INSIGHT

AI Valuations Assume Unchallenged U.S. Lead

AI winners may not grow into valuations priced today, and competition from China or new entrants is underestimated.
Rapid tech cycles and short chip lifespans make current market leadership fragile.

INSIGHT

Electricity Is The Bottleneck For AI Expansion

Data center buildouts face real constraints from electricity supply and location economics, opening competition from Middle East players.
Cheap energy and desalination give regions like Saudi Arabia an advantage for large-scale AI centers.

ADVICE

Prioritize Domestic Production Exposure

Prioritize investments tied to domestic production and processing for national security, not just cheapest suppliers.
Favor U.S.-focused companies or close-allied supply chains when allocating capital into critical minerals and energy.

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Wall Street's fears of Trump's tariffs and trade wars are greatly diminished these days -- at least by the stock market which has been flirting with new highs of late.Now that we're nearing the end of the year and a resurgence in inflation hasn't materialized, and new trade deals have been or are being finalized with many of America's largest trading partners -- including China, too, now it seems -- an important question is emerging:Will the economy start experiencing tailwinds soon from the Administration's policies?To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.

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