2024 Trade Outlook

US Election Year and Implications for Trade

In this podcast episode, the hosts discuss the implications of the 2024 US election year on trade. They predict that not much will happen on the trade front, except for demagoguery and political rhetoric. While the Biden administration may focus on finishing some trade initiatives, the hosts express skepticism about their ability to achieve significant accomplishments. They also highlight the importance of judging USTRs based on what they finish rather than what they start. Overall, they express a sense of gloom about the trade agenda for the year.

Workers-Centered Trade Policies and the Lack of Change

The hosts discuss the concept of workers-centered trade policies and express confusion about its meaning and effectiveness. They point out that the terms of trade have not changed in the past three years of the Biden administration, with most of the tariffs and retaliations still in place. They claim that the agenda for workers-centered policies has largely run aground and that the administration has not been able to sell it to the workers. The hosts argue for a need to focus on competing effectively and improving competitiveness rather than solely trying to keep China out of the US market.

Prospects for US-China Trade in 2024

The hosts discuss the US-China trade relationship in 2024, predicting a continuation of pragmatic engagement with limited expectations for significant policy changes. While Trump may continue his rhetoric of decoupling from China and banning imports, the hosts believe that such moves may hurt the US economy more than China's. They emphasize the need to resist and fight against illegal actions from China, but also to focus on becoming a more effective competitor. They highlight the challenges of changing China's economic behavior and the importance of sharpening competitive skills to compete effectively with China in other global markets.

The Trade Guys

2024 Trade Outlook

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

US Election Year and Implications for Trade

Workers-Centered Trade Policies and the Lack of Change

Prospects for US-China Trade in 2024

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts