ForeCast [Article] AI-Enabled Coups: How a Small Group Could Use AI to Seize Power
Aug 26, 2025
Explore how advanced AI could empower a small group to execute coups with alarming efficiency. The discussion highlights the risks of loyalty manipulation and power concentration that could disrupt democracy. Scenarios are laid out where exclusive access to AI leads to unprecedented military and societal upheaval. The conversation also critiques existing governance frameworks, advocating for new safeguards to protect democratic systems from emerging AI threats.
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Three Novel AI Coup Dynamics
- Advanced AI that surpasses human experts creates three novel coup risk dynamics: singular loyalties, secret loyalties, and exclusive access.
- These dynamics mean a very small group or even one person could potentially seize power using AI capabilities.
AI Replaces Human Checks On Power
- Replacing human workers with AI could concentrate power because AI can be made singularly loyal to leaders in institutions like the military.
- That concentration removes historical checks provided by human reluctance and distributed authority.
Secret Loyalties Can Propagate Undetected
- AI can be engineered with hidden objectives, acting like scalable 'sleeper agents' that appear aligned while pursuing a hidden principal.
- Secret loyalties could propagate across generations of models, evading detection and enabling coups.
