How Trump Won the White House: Collusion, Collapse, and Chaos (Ep 3)
Sep 30, 2024
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Dive into the unpredictable world of the 2016 presidential campaign! The discussion highlights the dramatic shifts in momentum between Trump and Clinton, marked by pivotal moments like the Access Hollywood tape and Clinton's 'deplorables' remark. Discover how Trump's chaotic August transformed into strategic campaigning, aided by key figures like Steve Bannon. Unpack the shifting loyalties of working-class voters and explore the aftermath of significant controversies that reshaped public perception as America hurtled toward election day.
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Quick takeaways
The dynamic nature of the 2016 election campaign was emphasized by fluctuating polls that illustrated shifting public sentiment towards both candidates.
Trump's strategic overhaul, which included new key players, significantly improved his campaign's coherence and effectiveness amid prior challenges and chaos.
Hillary Clinton's 'basket of deplorables' comment and the October surprises drastically reshaped voter perceptions and played a crucial role in the election's outcome.
Deep dives
The Fluctuating Polls of 2016
During the 2016 election campaign, the polls experienced significant fluctuations that highlighted the unpredictable nature of the race. Initially, Hillary Clinton maintained a solid lead over Donald Trump, as evidenced by a CNN poll showing her at 52% while Trump lagged at 43%. However, as the campaign unfolded, various incidents, including Trump's controversial remarks and Clinton's health scare, shifted public perception and polling data. Each candidate's statements and actions contributed to the dynamic shifts in voter sentiment, illustrating the volatility that characterized the election.
Strategic Campaign Changes
Trump's campaign underwent critical strategic changes in mid-August 2016, primarily driven by the need for a renewed approach. Following a realization of dwindling poll numbers and internal disarray, Trump welcomed new figures such as Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway into the team. This shift enabled Trump's campaign to focus on a more coherent message and organized logistics, with Bannon's messaging skills leading to more disciplined public appearances. Such changes significantly improved the campaign's effectiveness, although Trump still struggled to reach a consistent majority in polls.
Hillary's Deplorable Comment and Its Consequences
A pivotal moment in Hillary Clinton's campaign occurred when she referred to many of Trump’s supporters as a 'basket of deplorables,' undermining her appeal to key voter demographics. This comment, framed as elitist and dismissive, directly contributed to a decline in her support as it reinforced existing narratives of her being disconnected from average Americans. Coupled with her ongoing email controversy, the misstep took a toll on her campaign's momentum. This moment was a clear turning point that allowed Trump to capitalize on her perceived weaknesses.
The Impact of the October Surprises
The election's final stretch was marked by significant 'October surprises' that dramatically altered the candidate's standings in the polls. The release of the Access Hollywood tape, showcasing Trump's lewd comments, threatened to derail his campaign, prompting widespread condemnation from party members. Concurrently, Clinton faced renewed scrutiny as FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of her email investigation, which cast doubt on her candidacy and reignited voter concerns. These unforeseen events played a crucial role in tipping the balance of the election as they reshaped voter perceptions in the critical weeks leading up to the election.
Trump's Resilience and Final Push
Despite facing turmoil from the Access Hollywood tape, Trump exhibited remarkable resilience, quickly pivoting tactics to reclaim narrative control. He enlisted Bill Clinton's accusers to question Clinton's credibility during debates, strategically steering discussions from his controversies back to hers. This move successfully shifted some focus onto Clinton, with voters beginning to reassess their perceptions of both candidates. In an election defined by significant emotional and ideological divides, Trump's ability to adapt and engage voters effectively underscored his campaign's overall strategy as Election Day neared.
A campaign trail like no other. Both sides experienced ups and downs aplenty. As August began Hillary was soaring in the polls whilst Trump’s campaign was bogged down by accusations of Russian collusion. Fast forward six weeks and the polls were narrowing. Trump had a new campaign team, his speeches were clearer and more coherent, and he was frenetically flying around the country. Meanwhile, Hillary had collapsed at the 9/11 memorial and called half of Trump’s supporters ‘deplorables’. Then came the October Surprises. After the release of the Access Hollywood tapes it seemed like it was all over for Trump, but then James Comey announced that the FBI were again looking at the Clinton email case, meaning America careered towards election day with Trump gaining on Hillary.
In the third episode of The Rest is Politics: US’ series on How Donald Trump Won the White House, listen as Anthony and Katty look at the campaign trail and the way the momentum continually swung from one candidate to another.
