Joe Leahy, the China bureau chief for the Financial Times, sheds light on the current struggles of the Chinese economy, marked by a potential deflationary spiral. He delves into the impacts of Donald Trump's election on China's growth ambitions, as well as the government's response through new stimulus measures. The discussion also covers the pivotal role of local governments in economic revival and the challenges posed by diminished consumer confidence amidst a real estate crisis. Leahy emphasizes China's need to balance global competition with domestic priorities.
China's implementation of a substantial monetary stimulus package aims to revive its struggling economy and bolster consumer confidence post-COVID.
The potential re-election of Donald Trump raises concerns about increased tariffs, complicating China's efforts to achieve its long-term economic goals.
Deep dives
China's Economic Challenges and Stimulus Response
China's economy has faced significant challenges, including a real estate slump and the effects of prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns. As local governments struggled to pay salaries and debts, citizens across various income levels felt the economic strain. In late September, the Chinese government announced a substantial monetary stimulus package, marking its first major push since the pandemic. This announcement resulted in a dramatic surge in the stock market, indicating a renewed interest from retail investors after years of decline.
The Role of Xi Jinping and High-Tech Industry Support
President Xi Jinping has aimed to double China’s per capita income by 2035 to surpass the U.S. economy, utilizing a strategy that emphasizes infrastructure and high-tech industry investments. However, the lack of consumer confidence post-COVID, aggravated by a crash in the property sector, has hampered this recovery. Xi’s previous economic initiatives have focused on reducing reliance on international markets, especially amid increasing tensions with the U.S. Nevertheless, the response to slow economic growth has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the old economic playbook in the current environment.
Potential Impacts of U.S. Politics on China's Economy
The potential election of Donald Trump in the U.S. introduces fears of heightened tariffs on Chinese goods, which could significantly impede China's GDP growth. Chinese officials expressed concern that this political shift may complicate recovery efforts, leading to an urgent need for tailored fiscal strategies. Following the recent monetary stimulus, discussions have emerged regarding the necessity for impactful fiscal measures, emphasizing direct support for consumers and local governments. Future decisions from Chinese leadership will be crucial to navigate challenges and achieve economic objectives, especially in light of evolving global dynamics.
Lately, China’s economy has been in the doldrums, with the risk of a “deflationary spiral” lurking. Plus, toss in the election of Donald Trump in the US — and reaching the economic goals President Xi Jinping set more than a decade ago looks even more difficult. The FT’s China bureau chief Joe Leahy examines Beijing’s latest plans to fix the country’s economy and whether it will be enough to keep up with Xi’s long-term plans for growth.