Stratechery The Great Bifurcation
Dec 14, 2021
Explore the fascinating progression of technology through distinct phases, from Tech 1.0 to 3.0. Discover how the software revolution reshaped industries with the rise of cloud applications, challenging giants like Oracle and Microsoft. Dive into the dynamics of social media, with a focus on how features like Facebook Marketplace affect real-life connections. Investigate the blending of digital and physical realities, and how the pandemic has accelerated trends towards the metaverse, offering unique opportunities amidst the growing divide.
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Tech Evolution Pattern
- The evolution of tech has seen a recurring pattern of stagnation in one era while the seeds of the next are sown.
- This transition involves reduced lock-in and increased user autonomy.
Tech 1.0: IBM and Hardware
- From the invention of the transistor at Bell Labs to IBM's dominance, Tech 1.0 centered around hardware.
- IBM's antitrust case in 1969 led to the unbundling of software and services, creating a new market.
Tech 2.0: The Rise of Software
- Tech 2.0 saw the rise of software with Intel's microprocessors and the IBM PC.
- Microsoft's dominance with Windows created a two-sided market, leading to another antitrust lawsuit.