Capital Group portfolio managers Rob Lovelace and Noriko Chen discuss the future of global equities focusing on the impact of tariffs on the world economy. They explore macro factors affecting global equities, including the dominance of the U.S., growth in China, and potential in India. The podcast also delves into structural factors and management practices influencing company profitability in different regions, as well as the trends in European companies diversifying revenue outside of Europe.
Global equity trends have shifted from Japan in the 80s to China in the 90s, US dominance in the 2010s.
Multinationals are adapting to tariffs by diversifying production, investing in countries like India and Mexico.
Deep dives
Observations on Global Equity Trends Over Decades
Over the past decades, global equity trends have evolved significantly. In the 80s, the focus was on Japan and Southeast Asia for growth. The emergence of emerging markets in the 90s, particularly China, shifted investment interests. The 2000s saw China's rise as an offset to global challenges. The US dominated in the 2010s, driven by technology and media growth.
Macro Factors Driving Growth in Specific Industries
Macro factors significantly impact country growth and industry directions. China's rise in the 2000s due to increasing per capita GDP led to higher demand for products beyond staples. The 2020s may see India's per capita GDP doubling or tripling, driving consumption. Sectors like IT and healthcare continue to outgrow markets, based on higher growth rates, profitability, and return on invested capital.
US Market Dynamics and Structural Factors
The US market's dominance post-global financial crisis resulted from factors like innovation, productivity, and consistent earnings growth. The US's ability to deliver earnings and maintain profitability led to market expansion. Despite tariff impacts, US companies have adapted, while other regions are emulating the US model to compete globally.
Implications of Tariff Policies on Global Trade
Tariff regimes have complex impacts on global trade. Anti-dumping provisions, rising tariffs, and political motivations influence trade dynamics. Multinationals are diversifying production away from China due to tariffs. Companies are adjusting supply chains, investing in other countries like India and Mexico, and focusing on profitability amidst changing trade dynamics.
Capital Group portfolio managers Rob Lovelace and Noriko Chen share their outlook on the global equity markets and where they see compelling investment opportunities. They also discuss the growing impact of tariffs on the world economy and how multinational companies are navigating increasingly choppy trade waters. #CapGroupGlobal
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