Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 8th, 2026
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Jan 8, 2026 In this discussion, Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve Governor, advocates for substantial rate cuts in 2026, citing shelter inflation and labor market conditions. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, shares concerns over interventionist policies and their effects on investor sentiment and fiscal stability. Jim Zelter, President of Apollo Global Management, discusses the cautious yet disciplined investment approach amidst geopolitical tensions and record debt issuance, highlighting opportunities in Europe and Japan.
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Shelter Quirks Mask Underlying Inflation
- Stephen Miran sees underlying inflation near target once shelter quirks are removed and forecasts about 1.5% of rate cuts in 2026.
- He argues policy is currently too restrictive given unemployment and inflation signals, so accommodation is warranted.
Shelter Offers Predictable Disinflation Path
- Miran highlights shelter's mechanical pass-through from market rents to measured inflation as a high-confidence disinflation channel.
- He contrasts that with goods inflation, where drivers remain uncertain.
Adjust Projections If Jobs Improve
- Stephen Miran says he will adjust his policy projections if labor market data improves materially.
- He advises recalibrating rate expectations when unemployment moves meaningfully lower.