The Macro Trading Floor We Have A Deal: Now What?
47 snips
Oct 31, 2025 Alf and Brent delve into the market's response to the Trump-Xi trade deal and debate its actual implications. They unravel the complexities surrounding the Fed's recent decisions and the Bank of Japan's political influences over economic fundamentals. The discussion shifts to the evolving AI investment landscape, exploring shifts in sentiment and trading strategies. They also preview upcoming Supreme Court hearings on tariffs and the potential market repercussions if those tariffs are overturned, emphasizing the need for agile trading tactics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Headline Deals Are Fragile Market Signals
- Brent argues the China–US “deal” headlines have low credibility and markets often overreact to symbolic agreements.
- He warns the negotiation theater can reverse quickly, so treat headline-driven moves as fragile.
Powell Shifted The Decembers Odds, Not The Path
- Alf highlights Powell's comment that 3.75% is within some estimates of neutral as a hawkish signal.
- Both hosts note Powell's comments merely reshape probability distributions for a December cut rather than eliminate cuts.
Trade Fed Speeches, Not Absent Data
- Pay attention to Fed voter speeches during the data blackout because they now move pricing more than macro prints.
- Treat Powell's presser as risk-management messaging to temper extreme market cut expectations.
