
Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast
Julian Brigden - A Massively, Massively, Massively Overvalued Market
Jan 26, 2024
Renowned global macro strategist Julian Brigden discusses the massively overvalued US equity market compared to the rest of the world, the implications of the Goldilocks narrative, risks of bond market, and the future of global economies like UK, Europe, and Japan. Insights on potential trades and market trends to watch out for.
57:33
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Quick takeaways
- The US equity market is massively overvalued compared to the rest of the world, around four standard deviations overvalued.
- Achieving a Goldilocks scenario in the US economy is statistically unlikely, with concerns about higher inflation and wages.
Deep dives
US equity market overvalued versus rest of the world
The speaker believes that the US equity market is massively overvalued compared to the rest of the world, around four standard deviations overvalued. The market is in a self-reinforcing cycle where the purchase of US stocks fuels wealth, employment, Fed rate hikes, and the valuation of US stocks for foreigners. The market is likely to remain overvalued until the dollar declines or the bubble bursts. Despite concerns, the speaker does not anticipate a major bearish move in the US equity market before the upcoming election.
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