John D. Norton, "The Large-Scale Structure of Inductive Inference" (U Calgary Press, 2024)
Jan 11, 2025
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In this insightful discussion, John D. Norton, a distinguished philosopher at the University of Pittsburgh, delves into the intricacies of inductive inference. He challenges traditional deductive models, presenting his material theory of induction, which asserts that good reasoning is rooted in true background facts. Norton critiques coherentist approaches, emphasizes empirical evidence's role in hypothesis validation, and explores how historical examples, like Marie Curie's work, illustrate the evolution of scientific inquiry. He also addresses Hume's problems and offers fresh perspectives on scientific paradigms and the nature of knowledge.
John Norton argues that good inductive inferences depend on true background facts rather than conforming to universal deductive rules.
The discussion contrasts immature sciences, which harbor competing theories, with mature sciences that showcase singular, well-supported explanatory structures.
The narrative involves the mysterious 1994 disappearance of four teenagers, illustrating the ongoing struggles of families seeking justice and resolution.
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The Unsolved Case of Missing Teens
In a gripping narrative, the episode recounts the mysterious disappearance of four teenagers in Gravesend, Brooklyn, in 1994. The case went cold due to a lack of evidence or witnesses, leaving the families searching for answers. Years later, a brother of one of the victims unearthed DNA evidence that did not match any of the teens, reigniting the search for the truth. This new discovery highlighted the ongoing struggle for justice and resolution faced by families of missing persons.
Concepts in Inductive Inference
The episode dives deep into the philosophy of science, focusing on inductive inferences and the structures that govern them. It introduces the material theory of induction, which emphasizes that good inductive inferences are supported by true background facts within specific domains. This theory stands in contrast to traditional models that align inductive reasoning with universal rules akin to deductive reasoning. By presenting historical examples, such as Marie Curie’s work with radium, the discussion exemplifies how inductive reasoning is often contextual and built on a framework of established knowledge.
The Dynamics of Mature Science
A key insight from the episode is the distinction between immature and mature sciences in relation to theories and evidence. Mature sciences exhibit well-supported, singular explanatory structures, unlike emerging sciences where multiple competing theories often exist. This stability arises from the accumulation of evidence over time, which narrows down the most viable theories until one predominates. In discussing historical scientific revolutions, the dialogue emphasizes that the transition from one theory to another is typically grounded in new evidence rather than outright rejection of the former theory.
Science depends essentially on inductive inferences – inferences that go beyond the evidence on which they are based. But inductive inferences have historically been modeled on deductive inferences, which are valid if and only if they satisfy a valid argument form.
In The Large-Scale Structure of Inductive Inference (BSPS Open/University of Calgary Press), John Norton expands his defense of what he calls the material theory of induction: what makes an induction good is not its conforming to a universal rule, like deduction, but instead by its being warranted by true background facts in a particular domain. Norton – Distinguished Professor of philosophy of science at the University of Pittsburgh -- argues that while these facts are themselves in turn supported by inductive inferences, the resulting network of inductive support does not suffer from vicious circularity, is not a form of coherentist epistemology, and dissolves the infamous problem of induction articulated most clearly by Hume. The book is free to download here.