Sinica Podcast Introducing the Trivium Podcast, now on the Sinica Network
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Mar 6, 2025 In this discussion, Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, co-founders of Trivium, and Dinny McMahon dive deep into China’s economic policies and the implications of the recent Two Meetings. Andrew and Trey share insights on geopolitical risks and the shifting corporate landscape in China, while Dinny analyzes the economic challenges ahead, including low GDP growth and local government struggles. Their conversation sheds light on China's readiness to engage with the U.S. amidst trade tensions and explores the government's strategies for economic recovery.
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China's Economic Outlook
- China's economy is doing better than the US narrative suggests, as Xi Jinping isn't panicking.
- They will likely set a GDP target around 5% and lower the inflation target to 2%.
China's Fiscal Policy
- China might increase its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, the highest in decades, to stimulate the economy.
- They will utilize special treasury and special purpose bonds for infrastructure and real estate support.
Consumer Confidence in China
- Despite decent economic data, consumer confidence in China remains low, similar to the US pre-election.
- People are hesitant to spend due to job insecurity and uncertainty about the future.
