Converging Dialogues #468 - How Progress Ends: A Dialogue with Carl Benedikt Frey
Jan 26, 2026
Carl Benedikt Frey, economist and Oxford professor studying AI and the future of work. He explores centralization versus decentralization in shaping long-term innovation. He traces how historical state structures—from China to Europe and the U.S.—affected technological adoption. He also discusses market structure, regulation, and how AI and firm concentration are reshaping innovation dynamics.
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Centralization vs Decentralization Trade-Off
- Centralized states excel at harvesting low-hanging technological fruit but undermine long-term innovation by concentrating decision-making and talent.
- Decentralized systems foster diverse experiments and risk-taking that enable disruptive technological breakthroughs.
Why New Entrants Drive Disruption
- Decentralized organizations allow lower-level experimentation and adapt faster when technology is shifting.
- Concentrated incumbents often stick to existing revenue models, slowing radical pivots until outsiders force change.
European Fragmentation Fueled Innovation
- European fragmentation after Rome encouraged talent mobility and competitive states that lured inventors and skills.
- Competition between states pushed governance to become more pro-technology and stimulated industrial reforms.
