Steff Chávez, a seasoned Washington reporter, and Alex Rogers, a US business and politics correspondent, dive into the impact of third-party candidates on the 2024 presidential race. They discuss Robert Kennedy Jr.'s independent campaign and how nostalgia could sway voters. The conversation highlights the historical challenges third-party candidates face in a two-party system, along with a humorous take on the ages of current candidates and even a quirky ruling about chicken wings, providing both insight and entertainment.
The 2024 presidential race features significant third-party candidates who might disrupt the traditional Republican and Democratic dominance in elections.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exemplifies the challenges third-party candidates face, struggling with declining support despite initial appeal to disenchanted voters.
Deep dives
The Landscape of Third-Party Candidates
Five prominent candidates are challenging the traditional duopoly in the 2024 US presidential election: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, along with independents Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Cornel West, an activist and academic, aims to dismantle the hold of the ruling class to achieve true democracy, while Jill Stein focuses on climate change and social justice. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands out with his anti-establishment appeal, leveraging his family legacy and tapping into discontent among voters disillusioned with the political status quo. Each of these candidates poses a unique threat to the major parties, particularly as they capture a combined share of the vote that could influence the outcome significantly.
RFK Jr.'s Impact on the Election
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has emerged as a central figure in this election cycle, appealing to a mix of voters frustrated with the existing political system. His platform includes anti-vaccine views alongside criticisms of large technology and agricultural companies, which resonate particularly well among certain disaffected groups. Polling data reveals that while his presence could draw votes away from both Trump and Harris, his support has been declining, indicating challenges in gaining broader traction. This decline is compounded by his financial struggles, as significant fundraising from wealthy donors has not translated into electoral viability, putting him at risk of being overshadowed as election day approaches.
The Challenges for Third Parties in the US
The historical context of American politics reveals that third-party candidates often struggle to gain significant electoral ground, mostly due to the entrenched two-party system. Many voters who express a preference for independence or third-party candidates ultimately revert to major parties on election day, fearing wasted votes. Additionally, many Americans express dissatisfaction with democracy while still exhibiting significant support for their party leaders, complicating the potential for third-party emergence. This dynamic suggests that despite occasional surges in third-party polling, the systemic barriers in place will likely continue to stifle their chances.
Only two political parties — the Republicans and the Democrats — have controlled the White House since 1853. However, candidates from other parties still run in presidential elections. The FT’s Washington reporter, Steff Chávez, and US business and politics correspondent, Alex Rogers, join this week’s Swamp Notes to explain how third-party candidates could impact the 2024 US presidential race.
Swamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson and Manuela Saragosa.