Risks rise, but financial markets turn a blind eye

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news political risks have moved higher overnight, but by less than you might have expected given the pressures.

First we should note that today is Martin Luther King Day in the US, celebrating a man of peace, a Federal holiday so financial markets are closed. But no one missed the irony of the day given the US President telling the Norwegian Prime Minister he is no longer feels committed to peace.

The fallout has been a rise in long term interest rates (a rise in the risk premium), and a fall in the US dollar. Equities slipped it in non-US trading.

In Canada, their December inflation rate rose slightly to 2.4% from 2.2% in November, with the latest month rises relatively quickly. But there are base issues here with the ending of some GST relief measures. However, excluding petrol, their CPI rose 3.0% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November.

The Bank of Canada released two important sentiment surveys overnight. Results of the Q402025 survey of consumers show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict with the US continue to have a negative impact. And after a weak year, businesses expect domestic sales growth ito improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels.

In Japan, they have called a snap election for February 8. A key issue will be GST relief. But financial markets are concerned that will make their fiscal imbalances worse.

In China, the property sector is acting like a curse on their economy. They reported that house prices fell by -2.7% in December from a year ago. That was a -1.7% fall for new-builds and a massive -7.0% fall for resales. The overall results is the 30th consecutive month of price decreases and their fastest pace since July. There are no capital gains in Chinese housing, anywhere.

That is crimping consumer attitudes is a significant way. China's retail sales rose just +0.9% year-on-year in December according to official data, slowing from a +1.3% increase and missing market expectations of a +1.2% gain. This is their weakest growth since December 2022.

But China also said its industrial production was +5.2% higher than a year ago, and rising. Coal output hit a new record high. However, China's electricity production was only +0.1% higher in December from the same month a year ago. It is hard to believe their industrial production data if this was the case.

All this data then results in a Q4-2025 4.5% rise in GDP, according to their official report, marginally better than the expected +4.4%. Booming exports squares the circle. So they are claiming a neat +5% 2025 annual growth, exactly as the Party had said at the start of the year.

Probably of more importance, China also released updated demographic data for 2025. The said 7.9 million babies were born in the year, down from 9.5 million in 2024. The number of people who died in 2025, 11.3 million, continued to climb. It is being widely accepted now that these trends cannot be reversed, and will lead to profound population changes.

In the EU they also released December CPI results for December. Their annual inflation was 2.3% in December, down from 2.4% in November. A year earlier, the rate was 2.7%. Germany, Italy and France had lower rates, Spain and most of Eastern Europe had higher rates, some a lot higher.

Globally, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1% this year, but warned that major risks are building. The upgrade reflects resilient activity, strong labour markets and heavy investment in new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. However, they cautioned that these same forces could become sources of instability. Rapid AI-driven investment, particularly in North America and Asia, is supporting growth and equity markets, but if productivity gains fail to materialise, it could trigger sharp market corrections and weaken household wealth. 

New Zealand gets no mention or coverage in this report. Australian growth is forecast to be +2.1% this year and +2.2% in 2027. They noted Australia's inflation-control challenge. India is the star, but strong results are also expected from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. China's 5.0% growth in 2025 is expected to dip 4.5% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027.

Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, surged +1.0% in December from November, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp pickup from the prior two months. That puts it +3.5% ahead of year-ago levels. The recent surge may well get the RBAs attention. Don't forget the RBA next reviews ints monetary policy two weeks from today on February 3. Next Thursday's labour market data, and the following Wednesday's December CPI data will be crucial decision aspects.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since September.

The price of gold will start today at US$4672/oz, and up +US$76 from yesterday and a new record. Silver is has pushed up to US$94.50/oz and also a new record high.

American oil prices are essentially unchanged from yesterday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at US$64/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 62, and up +30 bps from yesterday and its highest so far this year.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,206 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.