In this podcast, macroeconomist Raoul Pal discusses his predictions for Q4 and 2024, the millennial generation's fascination with Gamestop and NFTs, the future of crypto payments, the scale of AI, and the worst upcoming 12 months in US history. They also touch on topics like the likelihood of a credit crisis, Raoul's presidential pick, and the possibility of Bitcoin existing outside the chain.
Cryptocurrency acts as a multiplier in macro cycles, and Raoul Pal predicts that as liquidity rises, crypto will outperform the market.
Advancements in AI and robotics will lead to a shift in society, with AI driving liquidity and risk-taking in the crypto market.
Raoul Pal warns of a crisis of trust in the digital age due to AI-driven technologies manipulating information, emphasizing the need for blockchain-based ID systems to establish trust.
Deep dives
Raoul Pal's Predictions for the Recession and Market Performance
Raoul Pal, a macro investor and founder of Real Vision, discusses his predictions for the recession and market performance. He accurately stated that the big scary recession that everyone predicted was not looming. He believes that we will have a mild recession, but the markets are already looking forward and pricing in growth. Pal predicts that the NASDAQ and S&P will finish the year at all-time highs. He also highlights the close relationship between the crypto market and macro cycles, stating that crypto, especially Bitcoin, acts as a multiplier. Pal expects that as liquidity rises, crypto will outperform, and he anticipates a decoupling of NFTs from equities as the NFT economy bottoms out and starts to recover.
The Impact of AI and Robotics on Society
Raoul Pal delves into the impact of AI and robotics on society. He emphasizes that AI, the second most important development in humanity after the splitting of the atom, is not fully understood. With advancements in AI, humans are becoming less special, and robots are becoming the new demographic. Self-driving cars are expected to eliminate the need for human drivers within 10 years. Pal also discusses the role of crypto as a universal payment rail and the intersection of AI and crypto, where AI plays a significant role in driving liquidity and risk-taking within the crypto market.
The Future of Trust and Authentication in the Digital Age
Raoul Pal predicts a crisis of trust in the future due to advancements in AI and deepfake technology. He warns that people will no longer trust the information they see, hear, or read, as AI-driven technologies can manipulate and create convincing digital content. Pal argues that digital authentication, specifically blockchain-based ID systems, is crucial to combat the spread of fake information and establish trust in the digital age. He predicts that the lack of action by big tech companies to implement common standards for authentication will lead to massive lawsuits and potential regulatory intervention.
Bitcoin as a Store of Value and the Role of Lightning Network
Bitcoin can exist as a store of value on its own, separate from the Lightning Network. Bitcoin's primary purpose is to serve as a secure and neutral internet store of value currency collateral. While Lightning Network offers scalability and faster transactions, its usage is relatively low compared to other chains. Bitcoin's value lies in its ability to fulfill its purpose as a foundational element in the global financial system, rather than being the fastest growing or most valuable chain.
The Role of Credit Card Debt and its Impact on Economic Growth
The record levels of credit card debt, driven by decreased incomes and the need to supplement them, may lead to a slower economic cycle. Although a credit crisis is not anticipated, the interest rates associated with credit card debt can hinder economic growth. Excessive debt burdens, including student loans, further contribute to the decline in trend rate of GDP growth. Overall, the current economic environment suggests a diminished potential for economic expansion in the foreseeable future.
Taking a quick break from the SBF Trial to bring you this interview with macroeconomist, Raoul Pal.
This conversation happened live in New York last week + Raoul & I got into everything - from what he expects for Q4 and 2024 to why the millennial generation won't stop gambling on Gamestop + NFTs.
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Real Vision x Ledger Festival: https://www.realvision.com/festival ------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
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