Supply Shock

On the Margin: The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell

Aug 28, 2024
In this discussion, Michael Howell, an expert on global liquidity trends from CrossBorder Capital, delves into the ongoing uptrend in global liquidity and its implications for the market. He touches upon the potential for a new Shanghai Accord aimed at weakening the dollar. Howell also analyzes the relationship between debt and liquidity, the real breakeven inflation rate, and the current dynamics within the Treasury market. His insights shed light on necessary monetary inflation hedges for navigating this evolving economic landscape.
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INSIGHT

Global Liquidity Cycle

  • Global liquidity cycles have historically followed a predictable pattern, bottoming out and peaking at regular intervals.
  • This cyclical trend influences market performance and can be used to inform investment strategies.
INSIGHT

Risk Exposure vs. Liquidity

  • Market fluctuations are often driven by shifts in investor risk exposure, not necessarily changes in liquidity.
  • These risk-on/risk-off dynamics create opportunities for those who understand the underlying trends.
INSIGHT

Shifting US Monetary Policy

  • Current US monetary policy may signal an easing cycle. This easing cycle has potential implications for the US dollar and global liquidity.
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