Sina Toossi, a Senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy and an expert on Iran, discusses the fraught U.S.-Iran relationship shaped by Trump's nuclear deal withdrawal. He highlights Iran's accelerated nuclear capabilities and internal debates on weaponization. Toossi emphasizes the challenges of potential military action against Iran and calls for urgent diplomatic efforts amidst rising tensions and regional alliances. He also touches on Iran's shifting political landscape, especially concerning future leadership dynamics.
The U.S. faces a crucial decision on Iran between diplomatic engagement, military action, or accepting a nuclear-capable Iran reality.
Iran has demonstrated resilience against sanctions, adapting its economy and forming new trading routes, especially with China.
The upcoming transition in Iran's leadership may significantly alter its domestic and international strategies, potentially reopening avenues for diplomacy.
Deep dives
The Crisis with Iran's Nuclear Program
The United States faces a critical juncture regarding its relationship with Iran and the ongoing nuclear crisis. After former President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Iran significantly escalated its nuclear enrichment activities. The situation has now reached a potentially irreversible point, as Iran's advancements in its nuclear program challenge the diplomatic options available to Western nations. As tensions rise, the choice confronting the U.S. lies between re-engaging diplomatically with Iran, escalating military conflict, or accepting a nuclear-capable Iran as a new reality in the Middle East.
Iran's Strategic Adaptations
Iran's geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically since Trump’s first term, characterized by greater resilience in its economy amid persistent sanctions. While the Iranian currency suffered significant decline initially, the country adapted by developing methods to circumvent sanctions and establish alternative trading routes, primarily with China. The resilience of Iran's economy has made it more capable of withstanding external pressures, leading to a shift in its political dynamics, particularly regarding diplomatic engagements with the U.S. and its approach towards its regional adversaries, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have adopted a more conciliatory stance towards Tehran.
Shifts in Iranian Political Landscape
The political dynamics within Iran have changed as hardliners gained power following the fallout from the nuclear deal's collapse. The first Trump administration emboldened conservative factions, diminishing the influence of reformists who previously advocated for diplomacy with the West. However, recent developments and public discontent highlighted by protests have generated a resurgence of calls for renewed diplomatic engagement within Iran. With the emergence of new political leaders advocating for a shift towards diplomacy, a potential opening for negotiation with the U.S. may now be more viable than in previous years.
Balancing Internal and External Threats
Iran's historical experiences, particularly from the devastating Iran-Iraq War, have shaped its contemporary strategic outlook and the development of its regional alliances. The leadership perceives external threats from the U.S. and Israel and has cultivated relationships with groups like Hezbollah and various militias in Iraq and Yemen to strengthen its deterrent capabilities. While these alliances have faced challenges recently, they continue to play a vital role in Iran’s regional strategy. The Iranian government is aware that a diminished deterrent network could lead to increased external aggression, prompting discussions surrounding the need for a more comprehensive national security strategy.
Potential Future Leadership Changes
The eventual passing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the country's political landscape. The future succession may introduce a range of new leaders, potentially shifting the balance of power within Iran's complex political system. Several factions advocate for various approaches, and the next leader's direction will profoundly impact Iran's domestic policies and its relations with the West. With the increasing recognition of the need for economic development alongside military strength, the future leadership will likely face pressures to balance diplomatic efforts with the existing hardline stances.
Although the Trump allies have repeatedly vowed to pivot away from involvement in the Middle East, a major crisis still looms on the horizon with Iran. In his first term, President Donald Trump tore up the Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the JCPOA, setting the stage for a renewed campaign of sanctions, sabotage, and assassination targeting Iran. Iran responded by vastly ramping up its nuclear enrichment program.
The situation continues to escalate, with Western powers weighing their dwindling options for how to respond to Iran’s nuclear expansion. Even after Israel inflicting major blows on Iran’s allies in the region over the past year, a U.S. war with Iran would be an extremely difficult and dangerous endeavor, and would destroy Trump’s vow to wind down U.S. wars in the region.
The U.S. now faces a choice of reengaging diplomatically with Iran, going to war, or accepting a nuclear Iran as a new reality.
On the new episode of Drop Site News's podcast Intercepted, Sina Toossi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy, joins Murtaza Hussain for a wide-ranging discussion on Iran and the incoming Trump administration.
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