Swamp Notes: Trump ices Europe out of Ukraine peace plan
Feb 15, 2025
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Max Seddon, Moscow bureau chief for the Financial Times, joins the discussion on Trump’s recent call with Putin and its implications for Ukraine. He explores the high stakes of Trump's peace strategy and the potential backlash from Ukraine and Europe. Seddon delves into Russia’s reactions to diplomatic gestures, signaling possible concessions, while examining Ukraine's steadfastness in the face of Russian demands. The conversation also highlights Europe’s shifting defense strategies amid U.S. policy changes, raising critical questions about regional security.
Trump's unilateral approach to peace talks with Putin dismisses Ukrainian sovereignty, alarming European allies about their own security and future negotiations.
The podcast highlights Europe's urgent need to enhance defense capabilities as reliance on U.S. protection diminishes amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Deep dives
Trump's Call with Putin and Its Implications
Donald Trump's recent 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy regarding Ukraine. During the conversation, Trump dismissed the existing Western approach, which emphasized cooperation with Ukraine and its allies, in favor of a more unilateral stance. This development indicates a potential pivot towards negotiating a peace deal that may favor Russian interests while sidelining Ukraine's input altogether. Essentially, Trump is suggesting that any agreement would be presented to Ukraine as a fait accompli, indicating a troubling disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and the geopolitical complexities involved.
Concerns from Ukraine and European Allies
The reaction from Ukraine and its European allies following Trump's assertions was overwhelmingly negative, highlighting widespread fears of being sidelined in critical negotiations. Trump's vague promises of peace were compounded by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's apparent concessions to Russia, which set a troubling precedent before talks had even commenced. These concessions include the exclusion of NATO membership for Ukraine and a lack of future security guarantees from the U.S., leaving many European nations and global partners alarmed. The combination of Trump's actions and Hegseth's comments has created a sense of urgency and apprehension among those directly impacted by the conflict.
The Future of European Security
The current situation has forced European leaders to reassess their roles in ensuring their own security as the reliance on U.S. protection diminishes. Historically, many European nations have underestimated the strategic threats posed by Russia, often expecting that Vladimir Putin's ambitions would be restrained. However, as the reality of the current U.S. administration's stance begins to settle in, there is a palpable urgency among European leaders to bolster their defense capabilities. Failure to do so in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia could leave Europe vulnerable and reliant on a potentially destabilizing negotiation process.
Ukraine is dominating discussions at this year’s Munich Security Conference after a call between Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, which ended with the US president declaring that peace talks will start “immediately”. The FT’s Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon is on to discuss, alongside Keir Giles, author of the recent book Who Will Defend Europe?
Swamp Notes is produced by Marc Filippino and Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.