Su Zhu, a controversial crypto trader, discusses market cycles, memorable trades, similarities of prior cycles, current market position, dealing with drawdowns, and strategies for growing a crypto portfolio from five to seven figures. The podcast covers resilience in cryptocurrency investing, mastering psychological aspects of trading, guidance for trading and investing, and navigating mental health in the crypto market.
Assessing crypto narratives is crucial for predicting market movements and attracting believers as prices rise.
Access to tier-one deal flow remains a challenge, impacting opportunities for funds with limited access.
Securing top-tier deal flow is essential for second and third-year funds to capitalize on high-potential opportunities.
Early stage investing in new coins before traditional exchanges can yield substantial returns and capture alpha.
Deep dives
Identifying Potential Investment Opportunities Through Narrative Predictions
Predicting narratives in the crypto market involves conducting thorough research to understand what projects are developing, what narratives are gaining funding support, and what factors could lead to wider acceptance of specific narratives. The key lies in assessing whether a certain narrative will attract more believers as prices rise, potentially expanding its impact on the market.
Evaluation of Public vs. Private Markets
The public cryptocurrency markets are showing signs of being overvalued, with deal flow being hotly contested. Founders are becoming more efficient and smarter, leading to tighter competition in deal valuation. Meanwhile, access to tier-one deal flow remains a challenge for some, affecting the distribution of opportunities and potentially creating obstacles for funds with limited access to prime deals.
Challenges in Second and Third-Year Funds
For second and third-year funds, the landscape presents challenges as they may struggle to secure top-tier deal flow, impacting their ability to capitalize on high-potential opportunities. The dynamics of private market valuations require a keen understanding of the competitive market environment and the importance of securing favorable terms for successful investments.
Extracting Value from Investment Opportunities
Despite public and private market fluctuations, identifying potential investments through comprehensive market analysis and narrative predictions remains a critical aspect of successful trading. Recognizing the fluid nature of market dynamics and making strategic decisions based on evolving narratives and valuations can help investors navigate the complexities of the crypto market and extract value from emerging opportunities.
Investing in New Coins Before Exchange Liquidity
Investing in new coins before they hit traditional exchanges can provide substantial returns as early adopters are eagerly looking for new opportunities. This early stage investing is seen as a way to capture alpha, especially before exchange liquidity enables broader participation in the market.
Learning from Trading Idols and Market Concepts
Drawing inspiration from trading icons like Soros and incorporating concepts like reflexivity and price leading narrative can enhance trading strategies. Understanding how narratives drive market movements and honing a 3D thinking model can provide valuable insights into market behaviors and potential opportunities.
Navigating Crypto Markets and Building Community
Engaging in crypto communities, staying positive, and continuously learning are essential for navigating volatile crypto markets. Gratitude for opportunities, self-awareness to avoid past mistakes, and the willingness to adapt to changing narratives can help in building resilience and mental fortitude in trading.
Episode 17 of Crypto Market Wizards, an interview series focused on crypto traders in the trenches of the liquid markets. Today we have Su Zhu discussing his story and how he sees the current cycle playing out. I understand he is a controversial figure but I personally learned a lot from him last cycle so I selfishly wanted to pick his brain on the market. I hope you enjoy the episode!
Crypto Market Wizards is an ad-free and sponsor-free podcast.
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Taiki is the founder of Humble Farmer Army, a community-driven research company founded in 2021 with a mission to create high-quality, digestible content that helps separate signal from noise for DeFi enthusiasts.
Timestamps:
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:23 Su Crypto Origin Story
3:10 Most Memorable Trades
11:18 Similarities of Prior Cycle
21:02 Where are we in the Cycle?
26:14 Dealing with Drawdowns
34:51 5 Figs to 7 Figs
45:51 Predicting Narratives and Rotations
51:55 Liquid vs Private Markets
56:59 Investing Heroes
1:03:03 Biggest Mistakes People Make
1:06:20 Crypto Twitter
1:12:49 Su's Edge
1:20:25 Analyzing CT Metas
1:28:44 Fumbling Bags
1:35:08 Be Grateful
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