Sky News Daily The future of the OBR with Ed Conway
Nov 28, 2025
Ed Conway, Sky News' economics and data editor, dives into the controversy surrounding the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) after a budget leak sparked criticism from Chancellor Rachel Reeves and others. He explains how the OBR was inadvertently undermined by its own early release and the political backlash that followed. Ed discusses the OBR's role and its forecasting process, critiques of its power, and how past governmental challenges have elevated its significance. He also navigates the risks ahead and potential reforms to safeguard its future.
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How The Budget Leak Unfolded
- Ed Conway describes how the OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook PDF was uploaded and leaked before the Chancellor spoke.
- Markets reacted quickly and yields moved sharply as traders accessed the document ahead of the official speech.
Why The OBR Was Created
- The OBR was created in 2010 to independently forecast and 'score' fiscal measures, reducing reliance on in-house Treasury numbers.
- Its model mirrors international examples like the US Congressional Budget Office and increased transparency around fiscal forecasts.
Small Team, Big Judgments
- The OBR is a small organisation with a three-person Budget Responsibility Committee making major judgment calls.
- Those judgments mix data, evidence and hunches to set growth and productivity assumptions that shape fiscal room for chancellors.