Mike Shelby: Fortress America, Civil War 2.0, & World War 3.0?
May 5, 2025
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Mike Shelby, a former Intelligence NCO with experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, shares his insights on today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He discusses the rise of low-intensity conflict in the U.S., warning against the threat of social unrest and terrorism. Highlighting the decline of Pax Americana, he proposes the concept of a 'Fortress America' in response to global tensions, particularly with China. Shelby provides practical advice for navigating these turbulent times and stresses the importance of community resilience in the face of unpredictability.
Mike Shelby highlights the rise of low-intensity conflict in the U.S., marked by social unrest and increasing political divisions rather than conventional warfare.
The transition toward a Fortress America signifies a significant shift in U.S. global dominance, especially in the context of relations with China and Russia.
The podcast emphasizes the importance of community preparedness and resilience in facing upcoming societal upheavals and economic uncertainties.
Deep dives
Current State of the U.S. and Domestic Concerns
The analysis presents a critical view of the United States' current situation, emphasizing the uncertainty and challenges facing the nation. Issues like national security, immigration control, and tariffs are discussed, with a particular focus on Trump's administration efforts to regain national sovereignty. It acknowledges that while some aspects of his policies on immigration and tariffs show promise, the potential for significant geopolitical shifts, particularly regarding relations with China and Russia, remains complex and uncertain. Overall, there is a recognition that the U.S. is at a critical juncture, with moving parts that could lead to various outcomes depending on domestic and international responses.
Emerging Civil Tensions and Low-Intensity Conflict
The concept of 'Civil War 2.0' is introduced, referring to the rising tensions and divisions within American society that are being framed as low-intensity conflict rather than a full-scale civil war. This perspective highlights ongoing feelings of unrest, especially as political factions prepare for future elections and engage in aggressive rhetoric, suggesting that civil strife beneath traditional warfare thresholds is escalating. The analysis draws parallels to previous civil struggles, emphasizing that the ongoing divisions are being fueled by entrenched ideological battles and class disparities. There is concern over the potential for heightened violence and social movements as the political climate deteriorates further.
Intra-Elite Conflict and Socioeconomic Divides
The fragmentation of elite classes in the U.S. is analyzed, with historical context provided to illustrate how competition among elites can lead to societal unrest. This intra-elite conflict is characterized by the disparities between traditional elites and emerging counter-elites, often rooted in academic and economic opportunities. The discussion points to a broader discontent among specific demographics, particularly young white males, who feel excluded from traditional pathways to success, exacerbating societal divisions. The analysis suggests that these tensions could result in significant upheaval, as disenfranchised groups may seek alternative channels for influence or power.
Foreign Influence and Economic Implications
Concerns regarding foreign interference, particularly from China, are articulated, noting how various global actors seek to influence U.S. politics and policies. The discussion underscores the complexity of domestic issues like drug trafficking and the effects of cartel violence alongside foreign economic strategies that aim to destabilize the U.S. Additionally, the ramifications of de-dollarization and potential replacements for the U.S. dollar are explored, emphasizing the precarious position of the U.S. economy amid shifting alliances and trade dynamics. The analysis calls attention to the challenges posed by both international competition and domestic vulnerabilities, which could further complicate economic recovery.
Future Scenarios and Preparedness Strategies
The potential for various future scenarios, including conflict, economic downturns, and social upheaval, prompts discussions on individual and community preparedness. The analysis advocates for building local networks of support and resilience, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in navigating uncertain times. Recommendations involve forming diverse discussion groups that foster varied perspectives and prioritizing essential resources like food and water. The overarching message promotes a proactive approach to securing community power that can withstand broader sociopolitical shifts and challenges.
Mike Shelby of Gray Zone Research and Early Warning Network discusses the current domestic and global situation, describing it as a time of generational change and concern. Shelby warns of potential low intensity conflict, such as violent social movements, terrorism, and color revolutions, rather than a conventional civil war in the U.S. He comments on the decline of Pax Americana, the new restructuring toward a Fortress America, and the ongoing conflict with China. He offers some excellent advice on weathering the storm.
Mike is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor with overseas deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. He covers civil unrest and low intensity conflict.
*Podcast intro music is from the song “The Queens Jig” by “Musicke & Mirth” from their album “Music for Two Lyra Viols”: http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)
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