Rebel Capitalist News Trump Rolls Back Tariffs...Has Recession Been Canceled?
Apr 15, 2025
Trump's rollback on tariffs sparks debate about its economic impact amidst recession concerns. The discussion evaluates fluctuating economic sentiment, inflation, and unemployment trends, while contrasting survey results and producer prices. It also tackles the dollar's performance against emerging markets and the significance of recent bond yields. Optimism in the NASDAQ linked to tariff changes and a focus on gold's exceptional performance highlight innovative investment strategies, alongside insights into the gold-silver ratio amid looming recession fears.
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Recession Trajectory
- Recession may not be canceled by tariff pullbacks alone.
- The economy might have been on a downward trajectory regardless of tariffs.
Unhealthy Deflation
- Producer prices crashing signals decreasing demand, not increased production.
- This differs from healthy economies like in the late 1800s, where lower prices reflected increased productivity.
Yield Curve as Recession Indicator
- Observe the yield curve, particularly the 10-year and 2-year treasury spread.
- A steepening curve, especially after a large inversion, often precedes recessions.