Stratechery Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI
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Dec 1, 2025 Explore the fierce competition in AI as Google’s Gemini 3 threatens OpenAI's lead, boosted by TPUs and benchmarks. Discover how Google aims to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance while its strategic maneuvers reshape the market landscape. Delve into the concept of computational scarcity, with supply chain constraints from TSMC looming large. Learn why advertising might be vital for OpenAI's growth, and ponder the long-term stakes between dominance in text versus video. The dynamics of aggregation and tech rivalry reveal an intriguing battle for the future.
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Gemini 3 Shifts The Competitive Baseline
- Google launched Gemini 3 and leveraged massive TPU compute to beat OpenAI on benchmarks.
- That success threatens OpenAI's lead and reframes NVIDIA's role in AI infrastructure.
TPUs For Sale Change The Chip Market
- Google is selling TPU capacity to rivals like Anthropic and Meta to challenge NVIDIA.
- That move creates a viable alternative to NVIDIA and pressures NVIDIA's long-term margins.
CUDA's Moat Is Vulnerable To Hyperscalers
- NVIDIA's historical advantages were performance, flexibility, and CUDA ecosystem.
- Hyperscalers have the scale and incentive to build alternative stacks and reduce CUDA lock-in.
