The Tally Room 147 - What might a hung parliament look like?
Apr 29, 2025
Join election watcher Peter Brent, who writes for Inside Story, and ABC journalist Tom Crowley as they delve into the potential ramifications of a hung parliament in Australia. They discuss the unpredictability and complexities of coalition politics, along with the impact of independents and the Teal candidates. Peter shares insights from riding Peter Dutton's campaign bus, while Tom explores the dynamic interplay between political leaders and the media. Their conversation sheds light on voter sentiment shifts and the significance of evolving electorates, including Werriwa.
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Hung Parliament Outcomes Vary
- Hung parliaments are not inevitable and have many potential outcomes beyond 2010's model.
- Labor can opt not to make deals and challenge opposition confidence votes, adding unpredictability.
Seat Distribution Complexity
- High minor party vote spread evenly may yield fewer seats, preserving a majority government.
- Votes don't neatly translate to seats, making hung parliament odds often overstated.
Crossbench Size Shapes Stability
- Larger crossbench increases hung parliament risk, but ideas to ensure stable supply agreements exist.
- Extreme parity (68-68) between parties causes unpredictable and chaotic outcomes for government formation.