In this engaging discussion, Sam Jardine, a Geopolitical Risk Consultant and Historian, delves into astropolitics and its implications for global governance. He explores the competition between the US-led Artemis Accords and China's lunar initiatives, emphasizing the necessity for international cooperation. Jardine discusses the repercussions of US-China decoupling on global trade and the emergence of a multipolar world. He highlights the challenges faced in establishing trust among nations and the importance of collaborative frameworks to navigate the complexities of space exploration.
Astropolitics is increasingly influencing global governance as space activities and geopolitical dynamics become more interconnected and competitive.
The rise of China's influence is challenging the Western-centric governance model, leading to a decline in trust and complicating international cooperation in space.
Although geopolitical rivalries create substantial obstacles, shared interests in establishing norms for behavior in space offer potential avenues for international collaboration.
Deep dives
The Rise of Astropolitics
Astropolitics is emerging as a significant factor in global governance, influenced by increased space activities and geopolitical dynamics on Earth. The number of lunar missions is expected to surpass 100 by 2030, and satellite launches have vastly increased, indicating a rapidly growing space economy. Projections suggest the space economy could exceed $1 trillion by 2040. However, space is not a lawless environment; rather, it's governed by treaties like the Outer Space Treaty, although the effectiveness of these laws is increasingly in question due to geopolitical tensions.
Impact of Earthly Geopolitics
Global politics on Earth are deeply intertwined with activities in space, creating a complex landscape shaped by emerging multipolarity and competition among nations. The rise of China has disrupted the previously dominant Western-centric governance model, offering alternative avenues for countries in the Global South. This shift has resulted in varied political alignments and a decline in trust among states, complicating collaboration efforts in space governance. Therefore, existing earthly conflicts and political maneuvering directly influence astropolitics and international cooperation in space.
Challenges in Space Governance
Efforts to establish cohesive international space governance face substantial obstacles due to prevailing geopolitical rivalries and diverging national interests. With no new legally binding treaties since the 1970s and countries increasingly prioritizing their strategic interests, establishing effective international laws has become challenging. Competitive dynamics within international institutions, like the UN, further complicate governance efforts, particularly regarding the race to regulate space weaponization. The absence of enforcement mechanisms for existing laws raises concerns about the potential for conflict and misunderstanding among nations operating in space.
Blockification and Fragmentation
The geopolitical landscape is characterized by 'blockification', wherein states engage in competitive behavior leading to fragmentation of global governance structures. Emerging powers are asserting their agency, thus complicating international collaboration efforts, with competing initiatives like the Artemis Accords and China's International Lunar Research Station. This 'blockification' offers both challenges and opportunities, as countries start to explore bilateral and multilateral arrangements based on shared interests. The evolving relationships among state and non-state actors make it essential to navigate this complex geopolitical terrain effectively.
Opportunities for Cooperation
While competition is the norm in international relations, opportunities for cooperation in space governance have emerged through shared interests and common challenges. Initiatives focused on establishing norms for behavior in space, particularly around transparency and information sharing, can foster trust among nations. By engaging in dialogues and establishing platforms for collective decision-making, states can work towards managing competition and preventing conflicts over shared space resources. Despite the challenges posed by the current geopolitical environment, concerted efforts to cultivate collaboration could pave the way for a more sustainable approach to astropolitics.
Samuel Jardine is a Geopolitical Risk Consultant and Historian specializing in space, polar regions, and seabed security, utilizing Applied History and OSINT. He has lectured for institutions like RUSI and the Royal Navy, with publications by Routledge. Currently, he leads research at London Politica, advises Luminint, and contributes to the Lunar Policy Platform.
Main Points
Context and an overview of Astropolitics
Space law and governance: geopolitical issues, a Multipolar world, and competition
The effects of the decoupling of US and China
Competing Space Blocks: The Artemis Accords vs. ILRS
Challenges and Opportunities in Space Cooperation
About Foresight Institute
Foresight Institute is a research organization and non-profit that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technologies. Since our founding in 1987 on a vision of guiding powerful technologies, we have continued to evolve into a many-armed organization that focuses on several fields of science and technology that are too ambitious for legacy institutions to support.
Allison Duettmann
The President and CEO of Foresight Institute, Allison Duettmann directs the Intelligent Cooperation, Molecular Machines, Biotech & Health Extension, Neurotech, and Space Programs, alongside Fellowships, Prizes, and Tech Trees. She has also been pivotal in co-initiating the Longevity Prize, pioneering initiatives like Existentialhope.com, and contributing to notable works like "Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy" and "Gaming the Future".