In Moscow's Shadows 116: Putin's "Forever War" (which isn't)
Oct 1, 2023
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Exploring the concept of a 'forever war' in Putin's Russia, including its manipulation and impact on the Russian underworld. Discussing Britain's historical policy in the Balkans and its potential role in special operations. Speculating on Ukraine's will to continue fighting and the challenges of achieving lasting peace. Examining the appeal of the film Chiborashka and the fallacy of a 'forever war' narrative. Exploring expressions of resistance and critiquing the Soviet party state's shortcomings.
51:17
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Quick takeaways
The concept of a Forever War in Ukraine is a convenient notion for Putin, allowing him to dismay his enemies and provide an organizing principle for 'late Putinism.'
Ordinary Russians don't embrace the idea of war eternal, desiring a different future of a comfortable, prosperous, and just society.
Deep dives
The Concept of a Forever War and Russia's View of Britain
In this podcast episode, the concept of a Forever War is discussed, specifically in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. The host begins by sharing an article from a Russian state newspaper that accuses Britain of being interested in a world war and constantly undermining the constitutional order of the Balkan countries to prevent Russia's influence. However, the host argues that this view is rooted in historical perspectives and doesn't align with the current reality. The host then delves into the idea of a Forever War and how it can have negative implications, perpetuating a sense of inescapability and preventing the exploration of alternative solutions. The episode also explores how Putin leverages the concept of a Forever War to maintain control domestically and influence negotiations externally. The host highlights the impact of the war on Russia, including casualties, economic strain, and the tightening grip of repression. The podcast concludes by considering the views of ordinary Russians who desire a different future, often focusing on living in a comfortable, prosperous, and just society, contrary to the narrative offered by Putin's regime.
Impact of Forever War on Ukraine and Negotiations
The podcast episode examines the impact of the concept of a Forever War on Ukraine and the potential effect on negotiations with Russia. It explores Ukraine's will and capacity to continue fighting the war, questioning the sustainability of its determination amidst casualties and economic strain. The episode also suggests that Russia may use the notion of a Forever War to dissuade Ukraine and the West, emphasizing the need for negotiations to avoid an eternal conflict. The host explains that this leverage gives Russia an advantage in shaping the terms of a potential peace agreement. The episode highlights the challenges of achieving lasting peace, as a military victory for Ukraine would not automatically guarantee stability. It emphasizes the importance of early negotiations to minimize the long-term impact of the war and avoid perpetuating the Forever War narrative.
Putin's Forevewar Ideology and Its Influence in Russia
The podcast episode delves into Putin's use of the Forever War concept as an organizing ideology within Russia. It discusses how Putin presents a narrative of heroic self-sacrifice and instills the belief that the conflict is not just a war against Ukraine, but a struggle for the motherland's sovereignty and unity. The episode highlights the regime's tightening grip of repression, aiming to maintain control amidst the war narrative. However, it suggests that this ideology may not resonate with ordinary Russians, as their visions for the future differ from what Putin offers. These visions include comfortable Russia, a techno gadget future, great Russia, and fair Russia. The host concludes that Putin's Forever War narrative may not be as effective as he hopes, as it fails to align with the desires and aspirations of the Russian population.
Reflections on Forever War and Potential End of Conflict
The podcast episode offers reflections on the Forever War concept and its potential end. It argues against the idea of an eternal conflict and highlights historical examples of wars that did not last forever. The host suggests that the war in Ukraine will eventually end but acknowledges the challenges and longer duration of the conflict. The episode explores the impact of the war on Russia's economy, casualties, and public sentiment. It also examines how Putin utilizes the Forever War narrative to justify escalating repression and increasing military spending. The host concludes by emphasizing the importance of considering the post-war scenario and planning for sustained peace.
The easy cliche that the Ukraine conflict may become a 'forever war' is a convenient notion for Putin - it may help dismay his enemies, and provides an organising principle for 'late Putinism.' To paraphrase the SF game Warhammer 40,000, in the grim darkness of the present, there is only war.
Yet, of course, no war last forever and, in particular, Russians themselves don't seem to be buying this notion. Even government pollsters suggest only a small minority are really enthused by the war - and not even they embrace the idea of war eternal for it's own sake.
I also indulge myself with the first segment in an occasional series of 'Why Everything Bad is Britain's Fault' (at least as far the Kremlin is concerned).
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