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The Memo by Howard Marks
The Insight: Conversations – Full Return World with Howard Marks and Armen Panossian
Nov 2, 2023
Howard Marks, Oaktree Co-Chairman, and Armen Panossian, Head of Performing Credit, explore the potential sea change reshaping investments, discussing tail risks, borrowing costs, credit analysis, surprises in the economy, and the shift to a full return world.
31:02
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Quick takeaways
- A sea change in interest rates may disrupt the investment environment, affecting GDP growth, financing for companies, defaults, bankruptcies, and prospective returns.
- Higher interest rates pose challenges for companies with high leverage, but also present attractive opportunities in credit markets such as high-yield bonds and senior loans.
Deep dives
The Sea Change Thesis: A Fundamental Development in Interest Rates
Howard Marks discusses the sea change thesis, which suggests a significant and lasting change in interest rates. He highlights that interest rates have been low or declining since 1980, leading investors to believe that this trend will continue. However, Marks argues that declining and ultra-low interest rates may not be the norm for the coming decade. This sea change has far-reaching implications for GDP growth, ease of financing for companies, defaults, bankruptcies, and prospective returns.
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