Bloomberg Talks Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran Talks Inflation View
Oct 3, 2025
Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve Governor known for his insights into monetary policy, discusses the current inflation landscape. He emphasizes how a sudden rise in housing costs could shift his inflation outlook. Miran challenges the notion that the neutral rate is zero, detailing how it's evolved this year. He underscores the importance of high-quality data, the impact of consumer prices versus shelter, and the Fed's 2% target amidst varying economic conditions, offering a refreshing perspective on fiscal strategies and policy adjustments.
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Housing Drives Inflation Outlook
- Stephen Miran prioritizes housing costs as the key driver of inflation outcomes.
- He expects shelter-driven services inflation to disinflate as population shocks fade.
Neutral Rate Is Low But Not Zero
- Miran says his neutral rate estimate is around 0.5%, not zero, based on a blend of model and market measures.
- He argues R-star moved down this year after peaking last year due to shifting forces.
Base Policy On Forward Forecasts
- Use forward-looking forecasts, not backward-looking data, when gauging appropriate policy rates.
- Plug in expected inflation and output-gap paths rather than current trailing statistics.