Experts discuss the impact of US-China rivalry on Ukraine and Taiwan, comparing the situations in both countries. They explore Taiwan's strategic preparations amidst the Ukraine-Russia conflict and analyze the social origins of policies in China, Taiwan, and Ukraine. The podcast also delves into the Sino-American rivalry, implications of Trump's return on Taiwan, and China's lessons from Taiwan in the wake of the Ukraine War.
Taiwan's security differs from Ukraine due to recognized sovereignty, offering stronger assurance.
US-China-Moscow dynamic shifts, with Beijing expecting US concessions for Moscow alliance.
Concerns about Taiwan's security amidst US-China tensions, with complex impacts on Taiwan-China relations.
Deep dives
Taiwan's Perceptions on Security Guarantees Compared to Ukraine
Taiwan's strategic thinking and preparations differ from Ukraine due to Budapest Memorandum's less concrete security guarantees. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan's recognition as a sovereign state by all parties offers more substantial security assurance.
Impact of US-China Relations on Ukraine Crisis
The old strategic triangle logic has been broken as there's no chance for US-Moscow rapprochement. Beijing leans towards Moscow, expecting the US to lift restrictions on technology, remove Chinese companies from entity lists, and cease support for Taiwan.
Differences in US Approach towards Beijing and Moscow
The US focuses on chastising Beijing for neutrality towards Moscow in the Ukraine crisis. Beijing desires the US to ease restrictions on technology inputs, delist Chinese companies, and halt support for Taiwan to improve relations.
Implications of Trump's Potential Return to Power on International Relations
There is concern about the implications of a potential return to power by Trump, especially in Taipei and Central Eastern Europe. Trump's unpredictability and fluctuations in statements pose challenges for countries like Taiwan and Ukraine. The impact of Trump's policies on alliances like NATO and global stability is a subject of debate, with differing views on how Europe would adapt if the US were to withdraw from certain partnerships.
The Influence of US-China Relations on Taiwan's Security
The deteriorating US-China relationship and implications of decoupling are raising concerns about Taiwan's security. The oversimplified viewpoint that anything bad for China is good for Taiwan is discussed. The impact of US actions, like preventing TSMC exports, on Taiwan's engagement with China is questioned, highlighting the complex interactions and challenges for Taiwan amid geopolitical tensions.
This week on Sinica, a conversation that I moderated on May 30th called “Assessing the Impact of US-China Rivalry on Ukraine and Taiwan,” put on by the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China. The main organizer was my friend Vita Golod, who is the chair of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.
The panelists are:
Dmytro Burtsev, a Junior Fellow at A. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and Professor at the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University.
Emilian Kavalski, Professor at the Centre for International Studies and Development at Jagiellonian University in Krakow.
I Yuan, Adjunct Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.