The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series The Beginning of the End of the Shadow Fleet || Peter Zeihan
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Dec 30, 2025 Discover the intriguing world of the Shadow Fleet, a network using shell companies to navigate sanctioned oil transport. Learn about recent U.S. confiscations of Venezuelan tankers and the decline in Venezuelan oil exports. Hear how Ukrainian drone attacks are targeting these vessels, raising insurance risks. Delve into the implications of a potential tanker shortage on global crude prices, and the startling possibility of Russia's militarization of the fleet. Brace for a multi-phase oil shock that could reshape the energy landscape.
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Shadow Fleet Is Systemically Critical
- The Shadow Fleet disguises sanctioned crude shipments using shell companies and flags of convenience to meet global demand.
- That opaque network exceeded a thousand tankers, making it systemically important to global oil flows.
Prepare For Transport Disruption
- Expect rapid disruption as seizures and attacks make operating shadow tankers far riskier and insurers may refuse payouts.
- Prepare for tightening tanker availability and higher transport premiums that will squeeze sanctioned crude flows.
Drones Turn Tankers Into Military Targets
- Ukraine's drone campaign now targets civilian tankers and patrol vessels globally, raising casualty and insurance risks for the Shadow Fleet.
- That capability turns the fleet into a de facto military target and undercuts its operability.