Audio Briefs “Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan”: Audio Brief with Mark F. Cancian
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Jul 31, 2025 Exploring the tense strategic landscape, experts assess a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan, drawing parallels to historical military conflicts. The discussion highlights the critical role of U.S. intervention to protect global trade routes. Listeners gain insights into strategic recommendations for both Taiwan and the U.S. to enhance their defenses against looming threats. It’s a gripping analysis of geopolitical dynamics and the implications of military strategy in a volatile region.
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Scale of Taiwan Blockade Battles
- A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could lead to the largest convoy battles since World War II with extensive use of aircraft and ships.
- Assessing such a scenario reveals the complex military dynamics involved in modern blockade warfare.
Blockades as Strategic Choice
- Blockades are seen as a lower-risk strategy for China to pressure Taiwan compared to invasion.
- War games reveal escalation dynamics and potential negotiated settlements in such confrontations.
Examples from War Games
- In a moderate blockade scenario without U.S. involvement, Taiwan loses many ships but maintains minimal electricity and some economy.
- In a full conflict scenario, coalition forces suffer heavy casualties but keep Taiwan's supply and production levels relatively stable.
