

What next for the Russia-Ukraine war?
May 16, 2025
Join Stephen Diel, a keen Russia analyst, as he unpacks Vladimir Putin's negotiation strategies amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Matthias Mazini provides a thrilling preview of Poland’s presidential election, diving into candidate strategies and voter disinformation. Claudine Fry discusses global trade dynamics shaped by U.S. policies, while Florian Wiede shares behind-the-scenes insights on the creative logistics of the Eurovision stage. Expect a blend of serious geopolitics and a touch of cultural commentary!
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Putin's Time-Warp Strategy
- Putin's delegation in Istanbul mirrored one from three years ago, ignoring recent war developments.
- He aims to negotiate from a position that denies Ukraine full sovereignty and territorial reclamation.
Putin's Magical Thinking
- Putin practices magical thinking by ignoring his failed initial war objectives.
- He tries to reassure Russians that eventual victory remains possible despite setbacks.
Fear of Uprising Threatens Putin
- Putin's greatest fear is a spontaneous uprising driven by worsening living costs.
- Such unrest could crack his regime and potentially end the war.