Bloomberg Talks Stephen Miran Talks Tariffs, Inflation
May 20, 2025
Stephen Miran discusses the limited impact of tariff increases on US inflation, highlighting that imports only account for 14% of the economy. He elaborates on the complexity of taxation and its effects on American families while addressing ongoing legislative efforts around the SALT cap. The conversation also touches on the economic ramifications of tariffs, using Subaru as a case study for price increases and exploring the relationship between tariffs, revenues, and export-driven growth.
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Tax Bill's Economic Impact
- The proposed tax bill could boost GDP 4.2 to 5.2 percent and create 7 million jobs.
- It would also increase take-home pay for a family of four by $8,000 to $13,000.
Deficit Reduction Plan Beyond CBO
- The White House plans deficit reduction beyond Congressional scoring methods.
- Growth, tariffs, interest rate reduction, and fraud cuts together improve the deficit by 3-4% of GDP.
Controlling Inflation Eases Interest Rates
- Inflation pressures are easing with three reports below expectations.
- Lower inflation should allow interest rates to return to pre-COVID levels.