174. Beyond Ukraine: Russia wages low-grade, hybrid attacks on Europe
Oct 15, 2024
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Max Bergman, a Russia expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Adam Siegel, a cybersecurity authority at the Council on Foreign Relations; Keir Giles, who studies Russian foreign policy; and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow focusing on Russian influence. They delve into Russia's hybrid warfare tactics across Europe, detailing acts of sabotage and the dangers of disinformation. The panel emphasizes the need for robust countermeasures and public awareness to combat these destabilizing actions and maintain global security.
Russia's hybrid warfare employs interconnected tactics of sabotage and cyber attacks to destabilize Europe and undermine support for Ukraine.
The emergence of an 'axis of upheaval' among adversaries signals a global shift toward hybrid warfare, complicating national security and diplomatic responses.
Deep dives
Small Acts of Sabotage and Their Implications
Recent incidents of sabotage across Europe, including a massive fire at a shopping center in Warsaw and attacks linked to individuals with alleged Russian ties, highlight a coordinated campaign to instill fear and undermine Western support for Ukraine. These acts appear interconnected rather than isolated events, showcasing Russia's hybrid warfare strategies that blend physical and psychological tactics. The broader goal seems to be destabilizing European nations and diminishing their resolve in aiding Ukraine, which poses a significant challenge for governmental responses. Experts emphasize the need for public awareness of such threats to bolster resilience against these disruptions.
Russia's Cyber Tactics and Hybrid Warfare
Russia's cyber capabilities now encompass gathering intelligence, executing disruptive attacks, and conducting information warfare, with recent upticks in these activities across various European targets. Notably, groups like Sandworm and a new division of the GRU have been implicated in a range of operations that leverage both traditional cyber tactics and physical acts of sabotage. This interconnectedness of cyber and physical warfare poses significant questions about national security, particularly as local criminals may be recruited to carry out attacks on behalf of Russian intelligence. The strategic use of such a model facilitates plausible deniability for the Kremlin while perpetuating chaos across the continent.
The Broader Geopolitical Impact and Future Threats
The ramifications of Russia's aggressive tactics extend beyond its borders, inspiring similar actions from adversaries like China, North Korea, and Iran, thereby increasing global instability. This 'axis of upheaval' suggests a collective shift in strategies that could embolden these countries to emulate Russia's approach of using hybrid warfare as a means to achieve their objectives. Moreover, Russia's exchange of military technologies with other regimes only exacerbates the threat landscape, diluting the efficacy of sanctions and diplomatic efforts meant to contain these nations. Policymakers face pressing challenges in formulating a coherent response that addresses the rapidly evolving dynamics of international relations in the face of such hybrid threats.
Dozens of small acts of sabotage and arson have flared across Europe as part of Russia’s hybrid battle against the West. This week, we spoke with four experts on Europe and Russia at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC to try to make sense of the Russian campaign and what the West can do in response.
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