Amar Bhide's 'The Venturesome Economy' explores the dynamics of innovation and entrepreneurship in modern economies. The book emphasizes the role of experimentation, adaptation, and serendipity in driving economic progress. Bhide argues that venturesome consumers and businesses, who are willing to take risks and embrace uncertainty, are essential for fostering innovation. He examines the conditions that promote or hinder venturesomeness, including institutional frameworks, social norms, and individual capabilities. By providing a nuanced understanding of the innovation process, the book offers insights for policymakers and business leaders seeking to create more dynamic and prosperous economies. Bhide's analysis highlights the importance of embracing failure and learning from mistakes in the pursuit of innovation.
This book provides a comprehensive overview of China's economic rise, addressing key questions such as how China achieved rapid growth, the sustainability of its economic model, and the coexistence of its vibrant economy with a repressive one-party state. It discusses China's impact on global affairs, including trade disputes, the Belt and Road initiative, and technological advancements. The book also explores recent changes in China's political system under Xi Jinping, the financial sector, and the country's integration into global financial markets. Kroeber offers insights into China's future economic prospects, including the challenges of environmental damage, rising debt, and corruption, and how these factors will influence its role in the global economy.
Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro, a founding partner at Gavekal Dragonomics, and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." It's the most useful, detailed resource I've found of how China actually works.
On this episode, we discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance, and where they'll go from here. By Arthur’s account, the Chinese government is like a giant VC fund: they decide on key priorities and then spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing ruthless competition at the local level. They are willing to lose huge amounts of money for a few of their bets to pay off: at China’s scale, effectiveness matters more than efficiency.
There's also a growing bipartisan consensus that we need to combat China's rise. This doesn’t make much sense to me. China is a big, powerful country at the frontier in many fields, and its economy is intricately tied in with our own. Being instinctively adversarial is both unsustainable and risky. Arthur and I discuss how we can create a productive, mutually beneficial version of this relationship.
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Timestamps
(00:00:00) – We should reconcile with China
(00:21:21) – BYD, Tesla, & Chinese EV industry
(00:36:05) – Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?
(00:44:39) – Local debt situation is manageable
(00:57:28) – If CCP is so competent, why isn’t China richer?
(01:05:08) – How China keeps tech under control
(01:33:45) – Does China win AI?
(01:43:34) – Communication with China key for AI safety
(02:10:08) – What foreigners get wrong about China
(02:17:32) – China-US relationship future
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