Rajesh Rajagopalan, a Professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an expert in U.S.-India relations, offers insightful takes on the recent Modi-Trump meeting. The discussion covers two contrasting narratives about the visit and the precarious state of U.S.-India ties amid a volatile political climate. Rajesh emphasizes the stagnation in defense collaborations and India's technology transfer demands. The conversation also touches on challenges posed by China and the implications of Elon Musk's influence on diplomacy.
Modi's visit to Washington highlighted two contrasting narratives that reflect the precarious and complex nature of U.S.-India relations.
The stagnation in bilateral ties is underscored by unresolved trade disputes and a lack of meaningful progress in security cooperation.
Deep dives
Diverging Narratives on Modi's Washington Visit
There are two main narratives regarding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. The first portrays Modi as having successfully balanced Indian interests while simultaneously providing Trump with early victories that may set a positive tone for future cooperation. The second narrative, however, expresses concern that U.S.-India relations are vulnerable and could suffer under a transactional leadership that may disrupt the partnership at a critical time for India. These contrasting perspectives highlight the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the bilateral relationship.
Biden Administration's Challenges
The Biden administration has faced significant challenges that have, in some respects, exacerbated the already dangerous geopolitical environment. Contributing factors include the strengthening of China's military power and a lack of swift U.S. support for Ukraine, resulting in a protracted conflict that distracts from important Indo-Pacific considerations. This slow response has hindered effective support for Ukraine and shifted focus away from pressing issues in the region, mainly due to fears of escalating military tensions. As a result, the administration's handling of international crises has created a complicated backdrop for U.S.-India relations.
A Stagnating U.S.-India Relationship
Despite lengthy joint statements and discussions outlining various areas of cooperation during Modi's visit, experts note a lack of tangible progress in U.S.-India relations. Issues such as trade disputes persist, and there is a growing sense of stagnation, especially in security cooperation initiatives where India appears hesitant to engage more closely with the U.S. Additionally, the rebranding of existing collaborations with new acronyms has raised concerns about substantive improvements compared to the past. The overall sentiment is one of plateauing diplomatic efforts, leaving many observers skeptical about future advancements.
India's Position and Strategic Concerns
India's relative position in the global hierarchy has deteriorated, especially in comparison to China's rapid growth. While India is recognized as a strong and emerging power, its status has become disadvantageous when assessed against historical contexts from the 1950s and 1990s. The disparity in economic size has widened, meaning that future projections of Indian growth may not significantly alter its strategic standing in relation to China. This dynamic raises important questions about India's foreign policy direction and the need for more proactive engagement with global partners to ensure its interests are adequately protected.
There are two narratives doing the rounds about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Washington to break bread with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The first narrative, touted by the government and its backers, is that Modi skillfully threaded the needle with Trump, standing up for Indian interests but also giving the President some important early wins that can position India well for the future. The second narrative suggests a more pessimistic vision: that U.S.-India relations are at a precarious juncture, where a volatile and transactional President just might upend bilateral ties at a time when India can scarcely afford it.
To discuss where U.S.-India ties sit in the aftermath of the Modi visit, Milan is joined on the show today by Rajesh Rajagopalan. Rajesh is professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is an expert on nuclear policy, Indian foreign policy, and U.S.-India relations. He’s also the author of a new article in ThePrint titled, “India-US ties stuck in cute acronyms. Delhi must wait out the chaos.”
On this week’s show, Milan and Rajesh discuss Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, India’s longstanding demands for technology transfers, and the plateauing in bilateral ties. Plus, the two discuss Delhi’s view on Elon Musk and the future of U.S.-China relations.
Episode notes:
“Trump and Modi, Part Deux (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, February 19, 2025.