Peak Prosperity Generational Wealth Will Be Made and Lost as the Carry Trades Unwind
Jan 29, 2026
Adam Rozencwajg, investment strategist and co-founder of Goehring & Rozencwajg, offers macro-focused views on resources and commodities. He explains carry trades, how financialization favors low-volatility growth, and what could trigger a painful unwind. They trace gold as an early signal of monetary stress and explore chronic underinvestment in energy and its long-term implications.
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What A Carry Trade Really Is
- A carry trade is a levered short-volatility strategy funded by cheap debt and rewarded so long as tomorrow resembles yesterday.
- It embeds into many market structures like private equity, hedge funds, buybacks, and momentum investing.
Central Banks Fuel Carry Bubbles
- Central banks are the primary enablers of prolonged carry regimes by suppressing volatility and stepping in during dislocations.
- That encouragement makes large levered short-volatility positions rational for many market participants.
Financialization Drives Extreme Inequality
- Financialization concentrates returns among asset owners and benefits the top tiers disproportionately.
- From 2020 the top 0.1% gained ~$11 trillion while many households saw tiny gains, amplifying social tensions.